Caribbean Weather in July: Risk of Rain

The Bahamas average more than six inches of rain in July.

Caribbean weather in July is similar to June with average high temperatures in the upper 80s Fahrenheit. But July also has a higher risk of rain from the annual hurricane season.

The hurricane season begins June 1 and goes through Nov. 30. Historically, June weather is fairly mild. It averages one tropical storm and a rare hurricane. July gets more active with an average of three tropical storms.

Over history, two of these tropical storms grow into hurricanes, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center. The higher storm activity in July means that many destinations have more rain during the month than they do in June.

The odds of being in the direct path of a hurricane are low. The greater risk comes from rain, clouds and high winds resulting from a tropical storm or hurricane that pass in the vicinity of a destination. Still, this higher risk of rain doesn’t stop many people from taking Caribbean cruises and vacationing in resorts, although total tourism drops compared to the dry season from January through April.

Temperature and Rainfall Chart
Location	Avg Min Temp	Avg Max Temp	Avg Rainfall Inches	Avg Rain Days
Aruba	79.0	89.2	1.2
Antigua	77.7	87.3	3.4	11
Bahamas	75.2	89.6	6.3	17
Belize	75.7	88.0	9.6	16
Bermuda	75.0	85.0		13
Cancun	77.4	92.1	2.2	9
Cayman Is	72.0	91.9	5.8	15
Costa Rica	61.3	76.8	8.2
Cozumel	74.3	90.7	4.5	12
Curacao	79.0	89.4	1.6
Dominica	76.3	86.4	7.1
Dominican R	76.3	86.9	3.1	9
Guadeloupe	74.8	88.7	5.9
Martinique	75.7	86.4	8.0	20
Montego	74.3	88.3	2.1	7
San Juan	76.8	88.5	4.4	14
St. Lucia	77.5	86.9	5.9	21
St. Maarten	79.0	89.9	2.8
Trinidad	73.4	88.3	7.6	21
Average	74.6	87.8	5.6	14

Eastern Caribbean in July

Several islands in the eastern Caribbean have a low risk of rain while several others get quite a bit of it.

The Bahamas average more than six inches of rain in July, according to 30 years of data from the Bahamas Department of Meteorology. It is best to avoid cruises that visit the Bahamas during the month.

St. Lucia, another popular cruise destination, also averages nearly six inches. Like the Bahamas, St. Lucia is not one of the better choices to visit in July.

Martinique and St. Lucia historically experience more than 20 rain days a month, although the actual rainfall is less than a half an inch on each day it does rain.

Likewise, Caribbean islands known as eco tourism destinations with rainforests and waterfalls such as Dominica, Martinique and St Lucia also have a higher than average amount of rain.

Good choices for a vacation with a lower risk of rain are Antigua, St. Maarten and Punta Cana, Dominican Republic.

It's important to note that these rainfall averages are based on long-term histories. The actual amount of rain varies from year to year and may come close to the average or vary quite a bit. But they are helpful guides in planning the best and worst months to go.

Western Caribbean in July

Cozumel beaches get very hot in July.

Weather in the western Caribbean during July has temperatures reaching into the low 90s Fahrenheit for some of the hotter destinations. Some of them have higher rain than average and others have lower chances of rain.

Like the Bahamas and St. Lucia in the east, rain increases to six inches for the Cayman Islands. Cozumel comes in second place with more than four inches.

Other destinations with historically lower rainfall are Cancun at two inches and Montego Bay, Jamaica, at about two inches.

Among the major Central American destinations, Belize and Costa Rica both experience higher than average rainfall.

July is also the hottest time of the year for the western Caribbean. Cancun may be fairly dry, but it's also quite hot with an average high of 92 degrees Fahrenheit or about 33 degrees Celsius. The Cayman Islands average 92 degrees.

Cozumel is nearly as hot at 91 Fahrenheit, while Montego Bay is more comfortable at 88 degrees.

Cooler temperatures take place in Costa Rica because of mountains and rainforests. The coasts have average temperatures in the upper 80s while the interior experiences them in the mid to upper 70s.

Southern Caribbean in July

Aruba and Curacao continue their dry season that started the previous December with between one and two inches of rain apiece.

Temperatures run just below the hottest period of the year with an average of 89 degrees Fahrenheit or about 32 degrees Celsius.

Trinidad has another wet month with an average of more than seven inches of rain, while high temperatures equal Aruba and Curacao at 88 degrees Fahrenheit.